A week ago Emmanuel Macron warned the French people that “civil war” awaits them if they dare spurn his woke globalism in favour the ‘extreme far right’ National Rally (NR). NR's president and candidate for prime minister, Jordan Bardella responded that Macron’s heated rhetoric was dangerous in itself, and that civil unrest was already a feature of Macron’s presidency.
The French responded with Marine Le Pen’s NR and its allies winning 33% of the vote. A humiliated Macron got only 20%. Turnout was high, 60% compared with 39% in 2022.
Immediately, parts of Paris were in flames, when the tolerant, liberal anti-fascist Left demonstrated exactly what they think of democracy and free and fair elections, by behaving exactly as National Socialist Brown Shirts did in Germany in the early 1930s. Had it been Donald Trump instead of Macron,what was said would have been called a threat and roundly denounced by the MSM, who still lie about Trump's supposed incitement of his supporters on January 6 2020.
But Macron? Nothing. The riots in Paris have barely been mentioned by the likes of the BBC and MSM in general. Compare and contrast this video by ever reliable SKY News Australia, with this mendacious one about 'protesters' by the Guardian, which clearly approves of demonstrations against democracy.
The main message from the BBC and MSM is their gleeful wishful thinking that NR will not win the second round this Sunday, 7 July, with all the mainstream parties ganging up on them to subvert the will of the French people. And it does seem clear that a NR government is what the majority of the French want, the scale of NR’s support being shown in brown on the map.
With no trace of irony or self-awareness, the pompous president of the Fifth Republic called on voters to rally behind candidates who are "clearly republican and democratic" for the second round run off. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two contenders qualify for the second round, as well as those with 12.5% of registered voters. The run-off is first past the post.
The anti-democratic horse-trading began almost immediately on Sunday night, with leftist political leaders telling their third-placed candidates to drop out. The first round’s high turnout suggests that France is heading for a record number of three-way run-offs, which generally benefits the NR much more than two-way contests.
The NR is expected to win most National Assembly seats, but only one pollster (Elabe) had them winning an absolute majority in the run-off. The most likely outcome, therefore, is that the woke Globalist Establishment will be able to prevent NR gaining a majority and that a coalition will form against it and the French people.
If this happens, the coalition of the Left is likely to prove fractious. As usual with socialists, mutual loathing is endemic among the motley crew the coalition will be formed of, so France is likely to end up with a dysfunctional Parliament and a lame duck, hated President.
But if NR does win, we can also expect major problems, with more left-wing violence a certainty, and possibly the civil war Macron threatened. It is also likely that a NR government would come under sustained, manipulated Machiavellian attack from the financial markets à la Truss. There is also the chance that NR will be turned, to become a troublesome, rebellious but nevertheless Establishment party à la Giorgia Meloni. The French are certainly living in interesting times.
Leaving all the turmoil aside, should we in Britain welcome an NR win? Yes and No. Yes, because Le Pen and her party are mostly on our side in the culture wars. They stand for the nation state, traditional values and oppose Islamism. And no as, despite being labelled ‘far right’ by the MSM, neither her nor her party is right wing in the real sense of that term. She can fairly be labelled as National Socialist (after removing the unfortunate associations of that term). She wants to put France first and implement an economic package very much resembling one put together by Jeremy Corbyn, or Walter Funk for that matter. And could we trust the NR to stop the boats leaving French beaches? Doubtful, that.
Despite all this, a large part of me desperately wants to see the French establishment get a good kicking, and NR take on the EU and ultimately destroy it.