“The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is falling.”
— Reza Pahlavi, June 17, 2025
With those dramatic words, Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi launched what could become the most decisive challenge to the Islamic Republic in over four decades. In a bold video posted to X (formerly Twitter), Pahlavi declared the regime finished and urged Iranians—particularly the military and security services—to turn their backs on what he called “a collapsing system.”
The timing was not accidental. Just days earlier, Israeli forces carried out some of the most effective and precise airstrikes on Iranian soil in history, crippling major missile launchers, disrupting command structures, and delivering a direct blow to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). With the streets of Tehran still choking on the dust of targeted bombs, the Iranian public, as well as the world, is being forced to consider a once unthinkable question: is the end of Iran’s Islamic Republic finally in sight?
The regime Pahlavi aims to replace is not merely unpopular; it is deeply loathed by millions of Iranians, even more so than the Starmer regime is loathed by the majority of the British. Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic Republic has ruled with an iron fist under the Supreme Leader’s autocratic authority, enforcing religious conformity and crushing dissent at every turn.
Basic freedoms are nonexistent. Political opposition is outlawed. Journalists, artists, and academics are arrested or forced into exile. Women are beaten for showing their hair. Dissent is criminalised, and the regime’s answer to peaceful protest is often prison—or the gallows.
The economy is in freefall. Sanctions, corruption, and mismanagement have devastated the Iranian rial. Youth unemployment is rampant, and inflation eats away at even basic subsistence. Meanwhile, the regime funds Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias in Syria and Iraq while ordinary Iranians struggle to buy bread.
(The state of Britain, where pensioners and many others struggle and the regime seems to delight in making the British poorer while generously subsidising anyone who can utter ‘I’m a refugee, I seek asylum’, as well as the corrupt regime in Kiev while throwing billions at, incredibly, Mauritius for no good reason, is a picture of rude good health by comparison.)
Terror and repression are standard tools of governance. The morality police, Basij militias, and IRGC dominate public life, while digital surveillance and informant networks stifle private freedom. Life under the Islamic Republic is not merely difficult; it is dehumanizing.
On June 12, Israel launched a series of unprecedented airstrikes on Iranian territory, targeting nuclear facilities, missile stockpiles, and IRGC command centers. The response came after Iran’s aggressive regional escalation, including proxy attacks against Israeli and Gulf targets, and the production of near-weapons-grade uranium.
According to Israeli officials, F-15s using extended-range glide bombs penetrated Iranian airspace undetected, taking out over 30% of the country’s missile infrastructure in a single night. Among the targets: Tehran's state television complex, underground weapons storage sites, and IRGC leadership compounds. Dozens of senior officers and nuclear scientists were reportedly killed.
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokespersons emphasized the strikes’ surgical nature, pointing out that evacuation warnings were issued before key targets were hit. Independent satellite footage and local videos confirm not just the damage, but also its precision. Despite the chaos in Tehran, the civilian death toll—while tragic—is lower than might be expected for strikes of this magnitude.
In contrast, Iran’s regime tried to downplay the devastation, issuing conflicting statements and restricting media access. The Ayatollah himself, it is rumored, was evacuated to a bunker outside Qom—drawing Pahlavi’s scorn as he likened Khamenei to “a frightened rat.”
Inside Iran, the impact has been dramatic. In the days following the Israeli campaign. mass panic swept Tehran. Highways were jammed with fleeing families heading north to escape expected retaliations. Gas stations ran dry. Supermarkets were stripped bare. Internet access was shut down. The regime, fearing coordination among dissenters, effectively silenced digital communications.
Street protests reignited. While it is true some Iranians were incensed and demanded retaliation and revenge against Israel, many more, I am informed by relatives remaining in Iran, called for regime change. Though still small in scale, new demonstrations erupted in cities like Isfahan, Shiraz, and Qom. In Tehran, brave citizens once again defaced regime symbols, painted protest graffiti, and chanted “Death to the Dictator.”
Whispers of discontent within the security forces have grown. Pahlavi’s message wasn’t just for the masses it was a direct appeal to the armed forces, calling on them to “stand with the people, not with tyranny.” In private channels, some mid-level officers are reportedly expressing fatigue and frustration.
Unlike other exiled dissidents, Pahlavi is not simply calling for chaos. He claims to have a detailed framework for transition; the "Iran Prosperity Plan", which outlines a secular, democratic, and economically free Iran. His proposal includes an interim unity government, bringing together diaspora leaders, reformist clerics, and domestic opposition as well as a roadmap for democratic elections, free press, and constitutional protections for minorities and women.
A new foreign policy, one which recognizes peace with neighbors (including Israel), rejects terrorism, and focuses on economic integration with the world. Such a plan directly contradicts the Islamic Republic’s isolationist and antagonistic posture. Pahlavi envisions not a nostalgic return to monarchy, but a constitutional democracy rooted in Persian history, secular governance, and human dignity.
The prince’s call comes as the Iranian opposition gains renewed strength. Beyond exile figures like Masih Alinejad and Hamed Esmaeilion, even underground activists within Iran are becoming more coordinated.
Groups of students, intellectuals, and even some technocrats are laying low but waiting for their chance. The 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, which began with protests over hijab enforcement, lit a cultural fire that continues to smolder. To this day, women across Iran risk beatings and imprisonment to walk unveiled.
Cultural resistance from rappers like Toomaj Salehi to covert street artists has grown more creative, bold, and widespread. The Iranian people are not merely passive victims. They are resisting, quietly and courageously.
Despite the dramatic moment, history warns against premature celebration. Iran’s regime, like many authoritarian systems, is skilled at survival. The IRGC remains well-armed, well-funded, and deeply entrenched. China and Russia continue to lend diplomatic cover. The regime controls the judiciary, the police, and vast surveillance networks.
Yet something feels different.
The precision of the Israeli strikes and their boldness have exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities. The international silence in condemning Israel’s actions suggests growing impatience with Iran’s behavior, even among Europe’s usual appeasers.
The population’s despair is turning into fury. Where once Iranians feared war, now many see it as a path to liberation. And crucially, the opposition has a credible figure in Reza Pahlavi with a clear message and a positive vision. He speaks not of vengeance, but of freedom. Not of religious domination, but of national rebirth.
For Israel, the stakes are existential. A nuclear-armed Iran governed by messianic jihadists is intolerable. Yet Israel’s leaders, from Prime Minister Netanyahu to Defense Minister Gallant, have been careful to differentiate between the regime and the Iranian people. As Netanyahu said in a recent address: “Our fight is not with the Persian people. It is with the tyrants who oppress them and threaten the world.”
By neutralizing threats with minimal civilian harm, Israel has signaled a new doctrine: not only military might, but moral clarity.
With Tehran’s skyline darkened by smoke, and its leadership hiding underground, Reza Pahlavi’s call may be more than symbolic. For the first time in a generation, Iran’s future is open to possibility. The West, and especially Israel, must seize this moment. Not by imposing change, but by supporting it. Human rights, information access, digital tools, and vocal support for Iranian protesters can make a difference.
Let history record that in June 2025, the people of Iran heard a voice calling them to freedom—and the free world answered.